Blog

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is a general communication of Keating and is not intended to be a solicitation to purchase or sell any security. The information contained in this Blog should not be considered to be part of Keating Capital's Prospectus. The offering and sale of Keating Capital's shares may only be made pursuant to Keating Capital’s Prospectus, which includes certain risk factors in the “Risk Factors” section of such Prospectus.

Archive for the "Opinion Pieces" Category

Submitted by Timothy J. Keating, Keating Investments, LLC

I submitted the following letter to the editor of The Wall Street Journal in response to an article  published January 5, 2011, titled “Friending Private Capital.”  Although the letter was not published in The Wall Street Journal, here is my response.

To the editor:

Your editorial “Friending Private Capital” raises a good question – why are so few companies going public today?

Up until the previous decade, low cost and efficient capital formation was a hallmark of the U.S financial markets.  Individual investors at all income levels have been able to participate in exciting growth companies by buying shares of publicly traded stock.

Goldman’s creation of a special purpose vehicle to buy shares in Facebook speaks loudly to everything that is broken with capital formation in the U.S. today.  Facebook is in no rush to go public because they likely perceive being public as burdensome in many ways.  Shares of Facebook “trade” on private exchanges to which the general public has zero access.  Goldman’s lawyers create a clever special purpose vehicle such that a group of investors (each with a purported minimum investment of $2 million) can be treated as one investor and thereby help Facebook avoid violating arcane securities laws.  How did it all come to this?

Jobs are created by growing companies, which need efficient access to capital, which is most easily facilitated by selling shares of publicly traded common stock to institutional, high net worth and “mom-and-pop” investors, who in turn enjoy transparency and liquidity.

Going public and being public needn’t be complicated or burdensome.  Goldman’s “Friending” of Facebook shares should be a clarion call to all involved in the equity capital market ecosystem that it’s time to do a root and branch review of everything that is inhibiting exciting private companies from going public in the U.S.

Submitted by Timothy J. Keating, Keating Investments, LLC

It wasn’t so long ago that junk bonds were trading at a 2000 basis points spread to Treasurys.  That was then, this is now.

Junk bonds are in a raging bull market.  Spreads over Treasury have collapsed to 600 basis points.  And when the ducks are quacking, Wall Street will always be sure to find a way to feed them.  Consider hospital operator HCA Inc.’s announcement last week that it was issuing $1.5 billion in junk bonds and drawing down credit lines to pay a $2 billion dividend to KKR and Bain Capital, its private equity owners. According to Standard & Poor’s, HCA’s payout is the largest PE dividend recap since June 2005, when Fidelity National Financial Inc. issued a $2.7 billion dividend to its owners.  According to The Wall Street Journal, “This year is on track also to mirror total dividend-related financing in the 2005-2007 sales boom. According to S&P, companies have sold $40.3 billion in dividend-related financing loans and bonds this year. Companies issued $56.2 billion and $55 billion in 2006 and 2007, respectively.”

On the one hand, we know that short-term Treasurys basically yield zero and that investors are starved for yield.  On the other hand, one might think that after the 2008-2009 financial crisis that even high yield investors might be slightly chastened about lending money to already highly leveraged companies, especially for the sole and exclusive purpose of issuing dividends to PE owners.  The question is:  Why do these companies engage in these financing transactions?  The answer:  because they can.

Submitted by Timothy J. Keating, Keating Investments, LLC

Mortgage Rates Go Below Yields on Long Treasurys: “An Impossible Event”

As pre-IPO investors, we are always on the lookout for signs that “animal spirits” are on the rise.  Consider the following two interesting data points:

Exhibit A:  30-year fixed mortgage rates (4.17%) dropped below the yields on 30-year Treasury bonds (4.239%) for the first time—ever.  Credit for highlighting this freak event goes to Michael Shaoul, CEO of brokerage firm Oscar Gruss:  “You have, in theory, an impossible event, which is that the man in the street is paying less interest than the government is.”  Click here to link to the article in the November 11, 2010, edition of The Wall Street Journal. Mortgage Rates Go Below Yields on Long Treasurys

Exhibit B:  The private equity “dividend recap” is back in force.  More to come in our next posting….

Opinion by Timothy J. Keating

Previously in this column, we had noted that in 2001 there was an average of 306 market makers quoting prices in stocks trading on the FINRA operated Over-the-Counter Bulletin Board (OTCBB). That number had dwindled to 199 at the end of 2008 and 160 at the end of 2009. As of April, the number stood at 135. There are now some 51,127 priced market maker quotes on Pink Quote vs. 9,615 on the OTCBB.

The OTCBB is now terminally ill; the faster that FINRA pulls the plug the better.

Download the PDF

Read the rest of this entry »

Opinion by Timothy J. Keating

“Toto, I’ve a feeling we’re not in Kansas any more. We must be over the rainbow!”

If the Tech Bubble of 1999-2000 was the Kansas of the IPO market, then no, Toto, we’re definitely not in Kansas any more. But is where we are today really all that is on the other side of the rainbow? No, and here are a number of important silver linings that provide hope for a more robust and vibrant IPO market—particularly for small issuers.

Download the PDF

Read the rest of this entry »

Opinion by Timothy J. Keating

We have written in the past about the many factors that have conspired to compromise the traditional, underwritten IPO, particularly for smaller issuers that raise less than $50 million in a public offering. The causes of the extinction of the small IPO include: Sarbanes-Oxley, Regulation FD and the Spitzer “global settlement” on equity research. But it’s not only the primary market that has been affected. Although less headline grabbing, the knock-on effects of these ill-conceived “reforms” have also had insidious impacts on the pillars of the aftermarket, namely research and trading.

Download the PDF

Read the rest of this entry »

Opinion by Timothy J. Keating

The National Venture Capital Association recently published a 4-pillar plan to restore liquidity to the U.S. venture capital industry. The four pillars in the plan are: Ecosystem Partners, Enhanced Liquidity Paths, Tax Incentives and Regulation.

Download the PDF

Read the rest of this entry »

Opinion by Timothy J. Keating

In his opening remarks to the 2007 Government-Business Forum on Small Business Capital Formation, former SEC Chairman Christopher Cox acknowledged the critical importance of small business to the U.S. economy:

  • “Small firms represent…99.7% of all the employer firms in the United States.They employ half of the entire labor force in the private sector.”
  • “Of all the net new jobs created in our country, small business generated between 60 percent and 80 percent in every year during the last decade.”

Download the PDF

Read the rest of this entry »